International Observation: The United States Continues To Release Water, And It Is Difficult For The World To Support High Cotton Prices In 2022

 

The current cotton grain price ratio determines that the planting area next year will only be high or not. At present, the planting area of new cotton in Brazil and Australia in the southern hemisphere is increasing. In the future, the northern hemisphere will pay attention to the planting intention report of the United States in February and the actual planting area in June; The main yield variables are Texas and India in the United States. Extreme La Nina may lead to drought and increase the abandonment rate in Texas, but the yield per unit area in India may increase. Overall, it is expected that the northern hemisphere will take the lead in increasing production in 22 / 23, followed by the southern hemisphere.

China's clothing consumption is basically the same as that in 19 years, while there is still a gap in Europe compared with 19 years. The amount and volume of clothing sales in the United States are far higher than that in the same period of 19 years. However, since the beginning of September, China's downstream orders have been depressed, which is difficult to form a strong support for cotton prices. The recent Xinjiang cotton incident has been fermented again, and the periphery has been implemented with anti epidemic strategy, so it is difficult for the operating rate to decline sharply in the future. It is expected that the global pattern will change from strong inside and weak outside to strong outside and weak inside next year.

In 2021 / 22, the world will continue to be de stocked. Affected by the delay of new cotton listing in northern hemisphere, the market performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 is tight supply. If the global logistics situation does not improve in the first quarter of 2022, the market performance will still be a little tighter, and regional imbalance will continue to exist.

Overall outlook: it is expected that the overall supply will increase in the next year, and the consumption growth rate will fall behind the growth rate of output, which will be difficult to support the absolute high price of cotton. However, the intensity of this round of water release in the United States is far higher than that in the past. In the future, it is necessary to accept the upward shift of cotton price center caused by the increase of planting costs.